Even without Sovereignty, scratched because of a fever, Saturday’s $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) is still the year’s most intriguing race. Losing the hero of the Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1), and Travers Stakes (G1) was a painful jolt, but the Classic remains a grand finale.
The remaining nine horses have totaled 15 Grade 1 and Group 1 victories. With the 6-5 morning-line favorite and likely Horse of the Year sidelined, Fierceness becomes the 5-2 favorite. Last year’s Classic runner-up at Del Mar has proven going 1¼ miles. Still, he’ll need a career-best effort to beat defending champion Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Journalism, Baeza, and his stablemates Mindframe and Antiquarian.
Before Sovereignty got sick, many handicappers figured the question was who would be second to him. But now, as one analyst said, “The wagering is going to be very different from what we expected.”
Where will you put your money? Here’s my educated guess on how the Breeders' Cup Classic could shake out:
Sierra Leone’s rabbit, Contrary Thinking, leads before fading on the clubhouse turn, where Fierceness makes his move, followed by Forever Young. Sierra Leone begins his patented late run, but it isn’t enough to overtake Fierceness and Forever Young, who duel to the sixteenth pole before the Japanese colt edges away.
Here’s a horse-by-horse analysis of the field from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, and revised odds in parentheses (Sovereignty was in post six before being withdrawn):
1 FIERCENESS (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher, 5-2)
Course-and-distance winner is a significant threat to repeat his Pacific Classic (G1) romp, in which he dominated Journalism despite veering in badly at the start. Pletcher didn’t want to draw the rail again, but if he doesn’t run well, that won’t be why. Excellent effort in last year’s Breeders' Cup Classic, where he held second after chasing a very hot pace (44 4/5-second half mile).
Betting verdict: Win contender
2 BAEZA (Héctor Berrios, John Shirreffs, 10-1)
Finally made his Grade 1 breakthrough against a weak field in the 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby (G1) after chasing Sovereignty and Journalism throughout the spring and summer. He’s 0-for-2 at 10 furlongs, and it seems unlikely he can beat all these heavyweights.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
3 NEVADA BEACH (Mike Smith, Bob Baffert, 20-1)
Made a forward move last time in Santa Anita’s Goodwood Stakes (G1), a Grade 1 in name only. It feels like Baffert is just taking a stab.
Betting verdict: Toss
4 CONTRARY THINKING (Florent Geroux, Chad Brown, 50-1)
He’s the rabbit for deep closer Sierra Leone, who’s always at the mercy of the pace. Set the fractions in the weirdly run Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), in which Sierra Leone closed well for second after having to avoid fallen rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. after the start.
Betting verdict: Toss
5 FOREVER YOUNG (Ryusei Sakai, Yoshito Yahagi, 7-2)
Globetrotting 4-year-old never has run a bad one, compiling a 9-for-12 record with thirds in the Kentucky Derby (by two noses despite trouble), Classic, and Saudi Cup (G1). Yahagi, the only Japanese trainer to win at the Breeders’ Cup (twice at Del Mar in 2021), has this standout primed for another significant effort.
Betting verdict: The pick
7 SIERRA LEONE (Flavien Prat, Chad Brown, 7-2)
Like Forever Young, he’s never finished out of the money (5-5-3). Always near the back of the pack until the far turn before uncorking his big late run. Received a perfect setup from unexpectedly blazing fractions in last year’s Classic, and it’s improbable it will happen again.
Betting verdict: Win contender
8 MINDFRAME (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Todd Pletcher, 6-1)
Ortiz was lucky to escape serious injury after being knocked off Mindframe early in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. That was the first time in seven career starts (five wins) that Mindframe was out of the exacta. Pletcher says he’s training well, but not having had an actual race in four months is a major concern, and his adjusted 6-1 price feels like an underlay.
Betting verdict: Toss
9 JOURNALISM (Jose Ortiz, Michael McCarthy, 5-1)
Always runs his race, but he’s never beaten a superstar, finishing second twice to Sovereignty and once to Fierceness. Journalism looked great running down Gosger in the final strides of the Preakness Stakes (G1) and Haskell Stakes (G1), but that colt isn’t top class. Feels like Journalism has plateaued and won’t improve enough to contend seriously.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
10 ANTIQUARIAN (Luis Saez, Todd Pletcher, 10-1)
He’s made steady improvement late in his 4-year-old season, but his upset in the Jockey Club Gold Cup was a fluke because of the chaos after the start. Can’t recommend.
Betting verdict: Toss
The Picks: 1 Forever Young, 2 Fiercenes, 3 Sierra Leone
