Welcome to the most exciting time of the year for racing enthusiasts, where the promise of the Triple Crown season begins to materialize in the heart of New Orleans. The 2025 Gun Runner Stakes, a vital prep race on the official Road to the Kentucky Derby, offers significant qualifying points and a proving ground for newly turned three-year-olds with serious classic aspirations.
We break down everything you need to know about this marquee event, from viewing options and weather expectations to a meticulous analysis of the complete field and the competitive Gun Runner Stakes odds. By the time you finish reading, you will possess all the expert knowledge necessary to place informed wagers and capitalize on this essential stepping stone to glory.
The importance of the Gun Runner Stakes cannot be overstated; it serves as a crucial barometer for young talent transitioning from maiden wins or minor stakes success to graded company. Trainers use this race at the Fair Grounds Race Course to test their colts over a distance of ground, specifically 1 1/16 miles on the dirt track, which powerfully simulates the stamina requirements of the Kentucky Derby itself. This race is more than just a competition; it is a serious evaluation of pedigree, speed, and mental fortitude under pressure, and the results fundamentally reshape the landscape of future Derby Gun Runner Stakes betting pools. We analyze every detail, ensuring you have the freshest data and deepest insights into how these contenders will stack up against the competition.
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Mark your calendars for the grand event, as the 2025 Gun Runner Stakes officially takes place on Saturday, December 20, 2025, at the historic Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans, Louisiana. The entire afternoon features exceptional racing, culminating in the Gun Runner Stakes as the centerpiece of a spectacular holiday weekend card. Post time for the first race of the day is typically set for 2:00 PM Eastern Time (ET), giving fans ample time to settle in and review the full racecard before the major stakes begin.
The designated post time for the Gun Runner Stakes itself will be Race 11 on the program, stands at an anticipated 5:45 PM ET, which provides a perfect capstone to a full day of handicapping and wagering action. Fans and analysts across the globe watch the action unfold primarily through major national horse racing networks, including streaming platforms that carry the Fair Grounds signal, which often provide excellent pre-race analysis and real-time commentary. For serious bettors, use your preferred Off-Track Betting (OTB) platform or online racebook, such as BUSR Experience, which offers the most integrated experience, allowing a seamless transition from research and analysis to placing your decisive Gun Runner Stakes bet slip right up to the gate.
While the 2025 Gun Runner Stakes commands the most attention, the Fair Grounds Race Course management always ensures the entire weekend card provides a feast of stakes action for bettors. This Saturday in December features several highly competitive supporting stakes races, making the day a true festival of racing quality. Immediately preceding the main event, bettors should focus heavily on the supporting features like the Tenacious Stakes (#8) and the Buddy Diliberto Memorial Stakes (#9), as these races often showcase other top-tier juvenile and older female talent that dictates the pace of the New Orleans racing circuit.
The Tenacious Stakes, restricted to juveniles, mirrors the Gun Runner Stakes by featuring high-quality two-year-olds, but typically over a shorter distance, demanding pure speed and early acceleration. Analyzing the winners and placing horses in the Buddy Diliberto Memorial Stakes gives astute bettors critical insight into the Fair Grounds track bias for the day, which directly influences how you should approach your Gun Runner Stakes odds assessment.
Furthermore, the presence of the Buddy Diliberto Memorial Stakes for older fillies and mares ensures the day attracts the highest-caliber jockeys and trainers, all vying for stakes success, thereby concentrating the talent pool and increasing the competitive value across the board. Savvy bettors recognize this concentration of talent and use it to find overlays in the supporting card, making the entire day a profitable venture before they even consider where to bet on Gun Runner Stakes.
Understanding the expected weather conditions at the Fair Grounds is an essential layer of advanced handicapping that the best analysts incorporate into their approach to Gun Runner Stakes betting. Late December in New Orleans, Louisiana, features highly variable weather, requiring close attention to the forecast leading up to race day. Historical data suggests temperatures generally hover between the mid-50s and mid-60s Fahrenheit, making for comfortable, cool racing conditions that benefit stamina-heavy colts.
However, the primary factor in this region is moisture. New Orleans frequently experiences morning fog or potential afternoon showers during the late winter season, and the condition of the main track, whether fast, muddy, or sloppy, dramatically impacts the performance of the field. Certain contenders have proven "mudder" pedigrees, thriving on wet surfaces, while others prefer a fast, dry track. We advise all our readers to check the local forecast religiously in the 48 hours leading up to December 20th, giving yourself a necessary edge in adjusting your Gun Runner Stakes odds calculations based on which horses handle the wet conditions best.
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Eight promising contenders declare their intent to claim the 2025 Gun Runner Stakes title, presenting a challenging and intensely competitive field where morning line (ML) odds suggest a tight contest at the top. ML odds provide an expert prediction of how the public will bet, but value lies in identifying horses whose actual chances exceed their quoted prices.
The presence of three horses from the formidable Brad H. Cox barn immediately draws attention, as does the return of a graded stakes performer, ensuring high-quality action and fluctuating Gun Runner Stakes odds throughout the day. We now examine the official field and ML odds provided by the Fair Grounds oddsmaker, preparing you for the action.
Trainer Cherie DeVaux sends out this son of Union Rags, a horse who broke his maiden smartly at Churchill Downs, recording a respectable speed figure of 96. Union Rags stamped himself as a tremendous sire of classic distance runners, giving Mesquite the pedigree to handle the 1 1/16 mile trip without issue.
Jockey Jose L. Ortiz secures the rail draw, forcing him to be quick out of the gate or risk getting shuffled back in the first turn, presenting a tactical challenge for the 9-2 morning line chance. DeVaux runs a highly efficient operation, and her decision to step up Mesquite into this demanding spot indicates serious confidence in the colt’s ability to compete with the best in the division, making him a significant threat for trifecta players looking at the competitive Gun Runner Stakes odds.
Hall of Fame Trainer Steven M. Asmussen targets this race with Chip Honcho, a Connect colt who flashed elite speed in his maiden victory at Churchill Downs, posting a stellar speed rating of 113, the second-highest last-out figure in the field. Asmussen, the king of the Fair Grounds circuit, excels in these types of prep races, preparing his horses meticulously for the arduous journey to the Derby trail.
Paco Lopez takes the reins, a jockey known for his aggressive and front-running style, which pairs well with the colt's evident gate speed, suggesting Chip Honcho will be prominent from the start. His 9-2 ML price looks highly appealing given the substantial 113 speed figure he carries, making him a prime candidate for a top finish and a serious factor in all Gun Runner Stakes betting scenarios.
Liberty National, the 7-2 morning line favorite, hails from the barn of Kenneth G. McPeek and possesses the highest internal rating of 6.12 in the field, indicating strong consistency in underlying metrics. This colt is by Maxfield, a promising young sire who brings a blend of speed and route stamina to the pedigree. Brian J. Hernandez, Jr., who knows the Fair Grounds surface intimately, guides the colt after an impressive maiden score at Churchill Downs.
McPeek consistently fields competitive runners in major stakes events, always having his horses tightly wound and ready for peak performance, and this horse’s high rating and favored odds reflect the barn’s typical strong placement in races of this magnitude. Analysts expect Liberty National to run a professional race and strongly challenge for victory, justifying the short price in the Gun Runner Stakes odds.
Brad H. Cox introduces his first of three runners with Quality Mischief, a son of the legendary sire Into Mischief, who remains a dominant force in producing precocious speed. Quality Mischief enters off a maiden victory at Indiana Grand, achieving a speed figure of 93, which is on the lower end of the contenders here. Marcelino Pedroza Jr. pilots the colt, and while the 10-1 longshot status reflects the jump in class and the lower speed figure, one never discounts a Cox trainee making his stakes debut.
Cox often works his magic with horses moving up in distance and class. If Quality Mischief inherited his sire's brilliance, he could surprise the board, making him an interesting inclusion in exotic bets for those looking to maximize their payout and bet on Gun Runner Stakes with a sleeper.
This intriguing contender, a son of Yaupon, ships in from the Michael J. Maker barn after a listed stakes win in the Joshua Radosevich Memorial Stakes, where he posted the field's highest last-out speed figure of 116. Jareth Loveberry takes the mount on this 5-1 shot, and the massive 116 figure commands immediate respect from every handicapper reviewing the Gun Runner Stakes odds.
While the last race occurred at a different level and venue, that raw speed translates well to any track, signaling a tremendous turn of foot. Maker's operation is known for sharp placement and preparedness. If Crown the Buckeye can repeat that powerful performance while tackling the stretch-out in distance, he becomes a major win threat and a crucial element for anyone trying to decipher the complex Gun Runner Stakes odds board.
Brad H. Cox presents his second runner, Arabia Wild, who arguably has the most potent pedigree in the field as a son of the race's namesake, Gun Runner. This colt broke his maiden locally at Fair Grounds, a significant advantage that demonstrates his affinity for the track's surface and configuration, earning a 94 speed figure in the process.
Apprentice Axel Concepcion gets the call, a rider who benefits from the confidence of the powerhouse Cox barn, which continues to dominate racing nationally. Given the sire connection and the home-track advantage, the 8-1 price offers excellent value for a horse poised for significant improvement in his second start over the Fair Grounds dirt, and his presence solidifies the intensity of the Gun Runner Stakes betting market.
Stablemate to the favorite, Very Connected is the second McPeek runner and the only horse entering the Gun Runner Stakes directly from a graded stakes race, placing fourth in the highly competitive Kentucky Jockey Club G2. This experience against a tougher company, where he earned a 99 speed figure, proves invaluable for handling the pressure of this race.
The son of Connect carries the highest overall rating of 7.09, signaling elite consistency, though his 9-2 morning line suggests he is not the stable's primary focus. Colby J. Hernandez navigates the colt from post seven, aiming to use his proven stamina edge to overwhelm the closing stages of the race. His graded stakes experience gives him a crucial advantage, positioning him as a serious contender to bet on Gun Runner Stakes with high conviction.
Brad H. Cox completes his formidable entry trio with Mister Punch, a second son of Into Mischief who graduated from the maiden claiming ranks at Churchill Downs, recording a 100 speed figure. Luis Saez, one of the nation's top riders, takes the mount, immediately upgrading the colt's chances from the outside post position.
While his last start was a maiden claiming race, the presence of Saez and his 100 figure suggests that Cox believes he has progressed significantly since that effort and possesses the underlying quality to compete in stakes company. At 6-1, Mister Punch represents the classic Cox sleeper, a horse flying slightly under the radar but capable of exploding onto the scene, offering substantial value to bettors analyzing the dynamic Gun Runner Stakes odds.
Though a relatively new fixture on the calendar, inaugurated in 2021, the Gun Runner Stakes quickly established itself as a major launchpad for Kentucky Derby aspirants, giving it instant credibility within the competitive landscape of the prep races. The race derives its name from the legendary Horse of the Year, Gun Runner, who began his own journey to greatness at the Fair Grounds, winning the Risen Star Stakes and building a Hall of Fame career. The race's short history already boasts monumental results that underscore its significance in the Derby narrative, compelling bettors to pay close attention to the form coming out of this contest.
| Year | Winner | Jockey | Trainer | Owner | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Chip Honcho | Paco Lopez | Steven M. Asmussen | Leland Ackerley Racing, LLC | 1:44.76 |
| 2024 | Built | Corey J. Lanerie | Wayne M. Catalano | Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners | 1:43.53 |
| 2023 | Track Phantom | Cristian A. Torres | Steven M. Asmussen | L and N Racing LLC, Brewster, Clark O., Caroom, Jerry and Breeze Easy, LLC | 1:44.42 |
| 2022 | Jace's Road | Florent Geroux | Brad H. Cox | West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables LLC | 1:44.85 |
| 2021 | Epicenter | Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. | Steven M. Asmussen | Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC | 1:44.19 |
The 2021 inaugural winner, Epicenter, immediately validated the race's importance by going on to win the Risen Star Stakes and the Louisiana Derby, ultimately finishing second in the Kentucky Derby and second in the Preakness Stakes, solidifying his status as a major player in the classic races. Following that success, the 2022 winner, Jace's Road, also utilized the Gun Runner as a springboard to stakes success, proving the race's utility as a stepping stone. These results demonstrate that the winner of the 2025 Gun Runner Stakes becomes an immediate favorite in subsequent prep races, profoundly influencing the future Kentucky Derby Gun Runner Stakes betting pools and driving the narrative for the first half of the year.
To successfully navigate the complex field and capitalize on the competitive Gun Runner Stakes odds, you must employ a methodical and disciplined betting strategy that goes beyond simply picking the favorite.
The three-horse entry from Brad H. Cox and the two horses from Kenneth G. McPeek present excellent opportunities for creating highly profitable exotic wagers, such as exactas, trifectas, and superfectas, where you can "box" entries from the same powerful barn. Key strategic moves involve placing "across the board" bets (Win, Place, Show) on horses you identify as having overlay value, specifically those with high last-out speed figures like Chip Honcho and Crown the Buckeye, whose 9-2 and 5-1 odds appear generous relative to their proven pace.
Another crucial angle involves analyzing jockey-trainer combinations and their win percentages at Fair Grounds. Asmussen and Cox, paired with Saez and Lopez, represent high-octane combinations that warrant inclusion in your tickets.
Furthermore, always utilize the track condition forecast, if rain falls, pivot your selections toward horses with pedigrees known for handling wet tracks, creating a significant edge over casual bettors. We strongly recommend structuring your wagers to maximize payouts while minimizing risk by playing combinations of the favorites (Liberty National) with the dangerous longshots (Quality Mischief), which offers the most balanced approach to your Gun Runner Stakes betting strategy.
The 2025 Gun Runner Stakes stands as a pivotal event in the juvenile calendar, offering a perfect blend of high-quality competition, classic potential, and excellent wagering opportunities. This field brings together the best emerging talent in the South, setting the stage for an explosive finish over the Fair Grounds dirt.
With high-level trainers like Asmussen, Cox, and McPeek squaring off, and the impressive speed figures of Chip Honcho and Crown the Buckeye looming large, this race promises to be both a spectacular viewing experience and a highly lucrative betting contest.
Do not miss the chance to lay the groundwork for your 2026 Kentucky Derby success by making your selections now; the moment to bet on Gun Runner Stakes is here, and smart money is following the speed and the pedigree in this exhilarating winter classic. Make your move, stay tuned to US Racing, and secure the advantage of real-time odds and analysis.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
