Paladin, suddenly thrust into the spotlight as a leading Kentucky Derby contender, headlines the $500,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) on Saturday at the Fair Grounds.
Paladin was designated the 8-1 individual favorite for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager when Churchill Downs set the odds for this weekend’s fourth pool. The KDFW challenges handicappers to select the Derby winner well in advance of the first Saturday in May. Always bet the KDFW with caution as many things can, and often do, go wrong for colts on the Triple Crown trail. Take Ted Noffey for example.
Last season’s 2-year-old champion was the individual favorite in the first three pools. Ted Noffey is now sidelined with bone bruising, taking him out of the Kentucky Derby picture while also rendering all the futures bets on him losers.
As usual, the favorite in the pool is “all other 3-year-olds” at 4-1. That’s always a good hedge bet. However, the newfound respect for Paladin makes the Risen Star a race to watch this weekend.
It’s also a key marker on the Road to the Derby. The Risen Star is the first race of the year to offer 105 Derby qualifying points with 50 points going to the winner. That’s a pretty big leg up on a slot in the Derby starting gate.
Paladin (the 8-5 morning-line favorite) is 2-for-2 in his brief career, although that record comes with an asterisk attached. He was elevated into a victory in his debut when Renegade was disqualified for a bumping incident at Aqueduct in October.
Those two squared off again in the Big A’s Remsen Stakes (G2) in early December where Paladin was a decisive two-length winner over Renegade.
Paladin was flattered when Renegade made his season debut a winning one, taking the Sam F. Davis Stakes last weekend at Tampa Bay Downs.
Now it is time for Paladin, a $1.9 million yearling purchase, to launch his 2026 campaign for trainer Chad Brown. Paladin, who has been training in Florida, will have Tyler Gaffalione aboard for the first time.
Paladin should be a prominent pace factor, a decided advantage in a race when the main competition will be far back early. Paladin has never been more than three lengths behind in the pacesetter in either race. Look for that pattern to continue.
The main competition appears to be Golden Tempo (3-1), also a perfect 2-for-2, with both victories at the Fair Grounds. Perhaps the home field advantage will be an equalizer.
Golden Tempo is a deep closer who should love the 1 1/8 miles in the Risen Star. He was the last-to-first winner of the Lecomte Stakes (G3) last month and offers a 20-1 price in the KDFP.
Let’s round out our trifectas with Quality Mischief (10-1), another late runner who should be picking up the pieces in the lane.
Post time for the Risen Star is 6:30 p.m. ET.
The picks: 1 Paladin 2 Golden Tempo 3 Quality Mischief
1 Universe (Chris Elliott, Kenny McPeek), 8-1
2 Golden Tempo (Jose Ortiz, Cherie DeVaux), 3-1
3 Carson Street (Ben Curtis, Brendan Walsh), 8-1
4 Paladin (Tyler Gaffalione, Chad Brown), 8-5
5 Chip Honcho (Luis Saez, Steve Asmussen), 6-1
6 Colt Forty Seven (James Graham, Keith Desormeaux), 20-1
7 Courting (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher), 6-1
8 Quality Mischief (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox), 10-1
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
