Today’s Kentucky Derby 2021 Forecast, Track Conditions and Odds

2021 Kentucky Derby Forecast

This year, for the Covid-19 Delayed Kentucky Derby, the weather in Louisville is expected to be warm and beautiful with highs in the lower 80s, the nice day coming after several days of rain in the area. But a fast track lately for Kentucky Derby Day has been almost a rarity.

Kentucky Derby Track Conditions

Churchill Downs

Horse at Churchill Downs – Courtesy of Churchill Downs/Coady Photography.

A year ago, Maximum Security and Country House won over a track labeled “sloppy”, as did Triple Crown winner Justify in 2008. Other runners to have won on a main track labeled sloppy are Orb (2013), Super Saver (2010), Mine That Bird (2009), Smarty Jones (2004), Go For Gin (2004), Citation (1948) and Flying Ebony in 1925.

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In 2017, Always Dreaming won over a track labeled “wet fast.”

Unbridled in 1990 was the last Kentucky Derby winner to capture the race over a “good” main track and joined Dust Commander (1970), Carry Back (1961), Venetian Way (1960), Pensive (1944), Omaha (1935), Brokers Tip (1933), Gallant Fox (1930), Plaudit (1898), Joe Cotton (1885) and Buchanan (1884).

Dual classic winner Sunday Silence won the first jewel of the Triple Crown over a “muddy” track, as did Tim Tam (1958), Hoop Jr. (1945), Clyde Van Dusen (1929), Exterminator (1918), Worth (1912) and Riley (1890).

Churchill Downs Track Condition

The track condition label “slow” isn’t used anymore and to prove it, the last time a horse won the Derby over a “slow” surface was in 1947 when Jet Pilot won. Other winners on a “slow” track were Assault (1946), Whiskery (1927), Paul Jones (1920) and Wintergreen (1909).

“Heavy” is also not an often-used track condition, but in 1928 Reigh Count won on a “heavy” main track, as did Stone Street (1908), Pink Star (1907), Agile (1905), Typhoon II (1897), Azra (1892) and Leonatus (1883). One nobody still alive to remembers is a “dusty” track condition and three horses a very long time ago won on a “dusty” track – Ben Brush (1896), Fonso (1880), Day Star (1878).

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Kentucky Derby 2021 Odds:

Kentucky Derby 2021 Odds
PP Horse Odds Trainer Jockey Owner
1 Known Agenda 6-1 Todd Pletcher Irad Ortiz St. Elias Stable
2 Like the King 50-1 Wesley Ward Drayden Van Dyke M Racing Group, LLC
3 Brooklyn Strong 50-1 Daniel Velazquez Umberto Rispoli Mark Schwartz
4 Keepmeinmind 50-1 Robertino Diodoro David Cohen Cypress Creek LLC and Bennewith, Arnold
5 Sainthood 50-1 Todd Pletcher Corey Lanerie CHC, Inc. and WinStar Farm LLC
6 O Besos 20-1 Gregory D. Foley Marc Pedroza Bernard, L Barret, Tagg Team Racing and West Point Thoroughbreds
7 Mandaloun 15-1 Brad Cox Florent Geroux Juddmonte Farms, Inc.
8 Medina Spirit 15-1 Bob Baffert John Velazquez Zedan Racing Stables Inc
9 Hot Rod Charlie 8-1 Doug O’Neill Flavien Prat Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing, LLC and Strauss Bros Racing
10 Midnight Bourbon 20-1 Steve Asmussen Mike Smith Winchell Thoroughbreds
11 Dynamic One 20-1 Todd Pletcher Jose Ortiz Repole Stable, Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable
12 Helium 50-1 Mark Casse Julien Leparoux D. J. Stable LLC
13 Hidden Stash 50-1 Victoria H. Oliver Rafael Bejarano BBN Racing, LLC
14 Essential Quality 2-1 Brad Cox Luis Saez Godolphin, LLC
15 Rock Your World 5-1 John W. Sadler Joel Rosario Hronis Racing LLC and Talla Racing LLC
16 King Fury 20-1 Kenneth McPeek Benjamin Hernandez Fern Circle Stables and Three Chimneys Farm, LLC
17 Highly Motivated 10-1 Chad Brown Javier Castellano Klaravich Sables, Inc.
18 Super Stock 30-1 Steve Asmussen Ricardo Santana Jr. Woolsey, Erv and Asmussen, Keith
19 Soup and Sandwich 30-1 Mark Casse Tyler Gaffalione Live Oak Plantation
20 Bourbonic 30-1 Todd Pletcher Kendrick Carmouche Calumet Farm

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