By Ray Wallin
Code of Honor- Photo Courtesy of NYRA
6 Handicapping Red Flags
Some people will argue that the 110-pound person on the back of half ton animal doesn’t make much of a difference. Others will argue that some jockeys can work magic and make a mediocre horse run beyond his abilities.
Either way, when you see your horse lose the top jockey of the meet to another mount you should at least wonder why. If the switch from Larry the Leader was to John the Journeyman you might not give it a second thought since John the Journeyman is pretty consistent and reliable. Yet when you see Ollie the O-fer take the mount the red flag should go up since this guy hasn’t won a race since Bush was the president.
Regardless of your opinion of the value of a jockey, the fact is that good jockeys win races that lesser jockeys wouldn’t. There is a reason that Larry the Leader wins 30 percent of his races and Ollie the O-fer doesn’t win much at all.
#6 Doesn’t Look Like a Winner
In the past I have talked about looking at the physical aspects of a horse in the paddock. Even our friend Rail Guy knows when a horse looks like he wants to run or wants to go back for a second helping of hay. Signals from the eyes, ears, tail, head, their gait, or how much the horse is sweating are all indicators of how the horse is likely to run today regardless of how good they look on paper.
Admittedly it is hard to assess a horse from a simulcast monitor so this one is hard to employ when you are not on track. Yet if you can tolerate Rail Guy for a few minutes between each race, you can preserve or grow your bankroll.
Every race is different. That is what makes handicapping both fun and frustrating at the same time. So, whether you are a casual horseplayer or you make your living playing the races, it is important to identify and watch out for these handicapping red flags. What are some of the red flags that you look out for?
Ray Wallin is a licensed civil engineer and part-time handicapper who has had a presence on the Web since 2000 for various sports and horse racing websites and through his personal blog. Introduced to the sport over the course of a misspent teenage summer at Monmouth Park by his Uncle Dutch, a professional gambler, he quickly fell in love with racing and has been handicapping for over 25 years.
Ray’s background in engineering, along with his meticulous nature and fascination with numbers, parlay into his ability to analyze data; keep records; notice emerging trends; and find new handicapping angles and figures. While specializing in thoroughbred racing, Ray also handicaps harness racing, Quarter Horse racing, baseball, football, hockey, and has been rumored to have calculated the speed and pace ratings on two squirrels running through his backyard.
Ray likes focusing on pace and angle plays while finding the middle ground between the art and science of handicapping. When he is not crunching numbers, Ray enjoys spending time with his family, cheering on his alma mater (Rutgers University), fishing, and playing golf.
Ray’s blog, which focuses on his quest to make it to the NHC Finals while trying to improve his handicapping abilities can be found at www.jerseycapper.blogspot.com Ray can also be found on Twitter (@rayw76) and can be reached via email at ray.wallin@live.com.