Horse racing enthusiasts and bettors are circling February 7, 2026, on their calendars as Tampa Bay Downs prepares to host the 46th running of the Sam F. Davis Stakes. This Grade 3 event serves as a pivotal stepping stone on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, offering qualifying points to the top finishers and a lucrative $250,000 purse. The race typically anchors a massive Saturday card at the Oldsmar oval, with the post time scheduled for late afternoon, approximately 5:30 PM ET. Fans can catch the action live on the BUSR Experience platform, ensuring they don't miss a second of the Triple Crown trail drama.
Securing a spot to watch the race is just the beginning for those looking to engage with the event. To maximize the experience, many fans look to bet on Sam F. Davis Stakes outcomes through the best online racebook. The atmosphere at Tampa Bay Downs on this specific weekend is electric, as the Sam F. Davis Stakes odds begin to fluctuate wildly in the hours leading up to the gates opening. Whether you are attending in person or streaming from home, the 1 1/16-mile dirt contest provides high-stakes excitement that sets the tone for the Florida racing season.
The weather in Oldsmar, Florida, during early February often plays a decisive role in track conditions and horse performance. For the 2026 Sam F. Davis Stakes, early forecasts suggest a classic Florida winter afternoon with temperatures peaking in the mid-70s. While the sunshine is a staple of Tampa Bay Downs, the humidity levels can influence how the dirt surface retains moisture. A fast track is the most likely scenario, which generally favors speed-oriented runners and those comfortable tucked just behind a moderate pace.
However, savvy bettors always keep an eye on the localized tropical shifts that can bring quick, passing showers to the region. A dampened surface could shift the Sam F. Davis Stakes betting strategy toward horses with proven "mudder" pedigrees or those who have shown versatility on off-tracks. Since the main track at Tampa is known for being somewhat "sandy" compared to other East Coast venues, even a small amount of rain can change the kickback profile significantly. Monitoring the final weather report two hours before post time is essential for anyone looking to capitalize on late-shifting value in the pools.
The Sam F. Davis Stakes is the crown jewel of a loaded weekend card that features multiple stakes races designed to showcase the best talent in the Southeast. On Saturday, February 7, the supporting features often include the Suncoast Stakes for three-year-old fillies and the Pelican Stakes for older sprinters. This creates a high-volume betting environment in which horizontal wagers such as the Pick 4 and Pick 5 offer large pool sizes. Analysts suggest that the early races on the Saturday card often reveal a "track bias," showing whether the rail is live or if closers have a fair shot in the lane.
Bettors should pay close attention to the trainer-jockey combinations appearing throughout the afternoon. Success in the earlier sprints often signals that a particular barn has their horses "cranked" for the local surface. As the Sam F. Davis Stakes odds are finalized, the data from these preliminary races becomes invaluable for constructing exotic tickets. Understanding the flow of the entire racecard allows players to spot value where others might focus only on the main event, providing a holistic approach to the weekend's festivities.
Looking back at the history of this race reveals its importance as a legitimate Derby prep. Past winners such as Bluegrass Cat (2006), Street Sense (2007), and, more recently, Classic Causeway and Litigate highlight the field's quality. The race transitioned to a Grade 3 event in 2009, and since then, the speed figures required to win have consistently hovered in the high 90s on the Beyer scale. Historical trends suggest that horses coming off a layoff or those making their second start of the year tend to perform exceptionally well here.
| Year | Winner | Jockey | Trainer | Owner | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | John Hancock | Flavien Prat | Brad H. Cox | CHC, Inc. and WinStar Farm LLC | 1:35.61 |
| 2024 | No More Time | Paco Lopez | Jose D'Angelo | Morplay Racing | 1:43.26 |
| 2023 | Litigate | Luis Saez | Todd A. Pletcher | Centennial Farms | 1:44.83 |
| 2022 | Classic Causeway | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Brian A. Lynch | Kentucky West Racing & Clarke M. Cooper | 1:42.80 |
| 2021 | Candy Man Rocket | Junior Alvarado | William I. Mott | Frank Fletcher Racing Operations | 1:44.30 |
| 2020 | Sole Volante | Luca Panici | Patrick L. Biancone | Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone, & Limelight Stables | 1:42.60 |
Analyzing the pedigrees of previous champions shows a preference for stamina-laden lines that can handle the two-turn configuration at Tampa. The track’s unique layout, with its relatively short homestretch, rewards tactical speed (the ability to stay within striking distance before the final turn). As you prepare to bet on Sam F. Davis Stakes contenders, remember that long-shot winners are not uncommon in this race, often triggered by a blistering pace that collapses the favorites. This historical volatility makes the Sam F. Davis one of the most exciting betting opportunities of the early spring.
The official draw for the 2026 Sam F. Davis Stakes presents a fascinating puzzle for handicappers, featuring a blend of established New York form and emerging Gulfstream Park talent. With nine runners set to enter the gate, the tactical advantage shifts heavily toward those who can secure a clean path into the short run of the first turn. Speed maps suggest a highly contested early lead, which may benefit those sitting just behind the initial skirmish. As the Sam F. Davis Stakes betting pools begin to swell, understanding the individual nuances of each trainer's preparation and each jockey's local success rate becomes the primary key to uncovering the eventual winner.
| PP | Horse | Odds | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Confessional | 2/1 | Brad H. Cox | Flavien Prat |
| 2 | Epic Desire | 15/1 | Todd A. Pletcher | Samy Camacho |
| 3 | The Puma | 6/1 | Gustavo Delgado | Javier Castellano |
| 4 | Game For It | 20/1 | Chad Summers | Luis R. Rivera Jr. |
| 5 | Ocelli | 12/1 | D. Beckman | Joseph D. Ramos |
| 6 | Renegade | 8/5 | Todd A. Pletcher | Irad Ortiz Jr. |
| 7 | Wayne’s Law | 30/1 | A. M. Sanchez | Marcos Meneses |
| 8 | Max Capacity | 30/1 | Richard P. Sillaman | Jevian Toledo |
| 9 | Dr. Kapur | 5/1 | Saffie A. Joseph Jr. | Silvestre Marin |
Confessional enters the 2026 Sam F. Davis Stakes as a formidable contender for the win. Trained by the powerhouse Brad Cox and piloted by the elite Flavien Prat, this Kentucky-bred colt has shown immense maturity in his young career. With Sam F. Davis Stakes odds sitting at 2/1, he is clearly the horse to beat. His recent workouts at Churchill Downs suggest he has maintained his conditioning perfectly, and his ability to sit just off the lead makes him a tactical nightmare for his opponents.
Trainer: Brad H. Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Official Odds: 2/1
Cox has a history of shipping in "live" runners for these Florida preps, and Confessional looks like a classic Cox trainee: efficient, athletic, and professional. While the 2/1 price doesn't offer immense value in the win pool, he is a mandatory inclusion in all Sam F. Davis Stakes betting tickets. Watch for Prat to keep him in the clear on the outside, avoiding any potential traffic trouble that often plagues young horses on the tight Tampa turns.
Epic Desire represents the Todd Pletcher stable, a barn that has dominated Florida racing for decades. With Samuel Camacho in the irons, this colt brings a 15/1 price tag that will attract value-seekers. Although his last outing was a bit underwhelming, Pletcher is known for making the necessary equipment and training adjustments to bounce back in high-stakes spots. Epic Desire has the pedigree to handle the distance, but he needs to prove he can handle the increased speed of a Grade 3 field.
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Jockey: Samuel Camacho
Official Odds: 15/1
At 15/1, Epic Desire is a "buy-low" candidate for those who believe the Pletcher factor is worth the risk. He may not have the raw speed of Confessional, but his stamina could come into play if the pace becomes contested. If the Sam F. Davis Stakes odds on this horse drift toward 20/1, he becomes a very intriguing option for the bottom of trifecta and superfecta wagers.
The Puma is one of the more consistent runners in this field, coming out of the Gustavo Delgado barn. Javier Castellano taking the mount is a massive "plus" factor, as Castellano is a master at navigating the Tampa Bay Downs dirt. The 6/1 odds reflect a horse that is respected but not revered. He has shown a gritty closing kick in his previous starts, and if the front-runners tire, The Puma will be the one picking up the pieces in the final furlong.
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Official Odds: 6/1
For those looking to bet on Sam F. Davis Stakes horses with a high floor, The Puma is your candidate. He rarely runs a bad race and has the seasoning required for this level of competition. His 6/1 price is fair, and he serves as a great "key" horse for exotic bets. If the pace is honest, expect Castellano to weave him through traffic for a late run at the podium.
Game for It enters as a 20/1 long shot, trained by Chad Summers and ridden by L.R. Rivera, Jr. This colt is the definition of a "wild card." While his speed figures are currently below those of the top-tier contenders, he has shown flashes of brilliance in morning drills. Summers is an ambitious trainer who wouldn't enter a horse in a Grade 3 unless he felt there was an upset possibility. However, drawing an outside post might make it difficult for Rivera to find a comfortable spot early.
Trainer: Chad Summers
Jockey: L.R. Rivera, Jr.
Official Odds: 20/1
Betting on Game for It requires a belief in a major form reversal. While the Sam F. Davis Stakes odds are tempting, his lack of experience against elite company is a concern. He is best used as a deep "bomb" in superfectas for those chasing a life-changing payout, but he faces an uphill battle to find the winner's circle against this group.
Ocelli, at 12/1, represents the David Beckman stable with Joseph Ramos aboard. This colt has been the buzz of the backside at Tampa recently, with clockers noting his improved footwork. Ocelli has a versatile running style, capable of leading or stalking, which gives Ramos plenty of options depending on how the gates break. His 12/1 odds provide a nice middle-ground value for those who want to fade the heavy favorite.
Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
Jockey: Joseph D. Ramos
Official Odds: 12/1
Ocelli is the type of horse that often outruns his odds in the Sam F. Davis Stakes betting pools. If he can break cleanly and establish a position in the top four, he has the heart to hang on for a piece of the purse. He is a strong candidate for "Across the Board" betting for those looking for a safe way to play a double-digit price.
Renegade is the "other" Pletcher horse, and many insiders believe he might actually be the better of the two stablemates. With Irad Ortiz, Jr. (arguably the best jockey in the world right now) choosing to ride this colt, his 8/5 odds are likely to drop even further by post time. Renegade destroyed a maiden special weight field in his last start and looks poised for a massive step up. The Sam F. Davis Stakes odds reflect the high expectations placed on this Kentucky-bred son of a top-tier sire.
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Official Odds: 8/5
If you plan to bet on Sam F. Davis Stakes favorites, Renegade is the primary alternative to Confessional. The Pletcher/Ortiz duo is lethal, and this horse's visual impressively suggests he is Grade 1 quality. Expect him to be heavily backed in all Sam F. Davis Stakes betting markets, potentially going off as the post-time favorite if the money pours in late.
Wayne's Law is the local Florida-bred hero in the race, trained by A.M. Sanchez and ridden by M. Meneses. At 30/1, he is the biggest underdog in the field. While it's always fun to root for the local "homegrown" talent, Wayne's Law has struggled against open companies in the past. He will need the race of his life and a significant amount of luck to factor into the finish here.
Trainer: Amador Merei Sanchez
Jockey: Marcos Meneses
Official Odds: 30/1
The Sam F. Davis Stakes odds of 30/1 correctly identify Wayne's Law as a long shot. He likely lacks the closing speed to catch the heavyweights in the final quarter-mile. However, his presence adds value to the field, and his fans will likely support him in the "win" pool regardless of the data.
Max Capacity comes in at 30/1 for trainer R.P. Sillaman and jockey J. Toledo. Much like Wayne's Law, this colt is seeking a massive upset. His previous form suggests he is more comfortable in lower-level allowance races than in a Grade 3 Derby prep. His speed figures have plateaued, and without a significant "jump" in performance, he will likely be toward the rear of the pack when they turn for home.
Trainer: Richard P. Sillaman
Jockey: Jevian Toledo
Official Odds: 30/1
When looking at Sam F. Davis Stakes betting options, Max Capacity is difficult to recommend even as a filler for exotics. He hasn't shown the necessary brilliance to compete with horses like Renegade or Confessional. It would take a chaotic pace and multiple incidents for him to find his way into the top four.
Dr. Kapur is the "X-factor" from the Saffie Joseph, Jr. barn. Joseph has become a dominant force in Florida, and Dr. Kapur's 5/1 odds suggest the betting public knows it. Samuel Marin takes the mount on this Kentucky-bred colt, who possesses an incredibly high cruising speed. If Dr. Kapur can clear the field from the outside post, he might be able to steal the race on the front end.
Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
Jockey: Samuel Marin
Official Odds: 5/1
Dr. Kapur is a must-use for anyone looking to bet on Sam F. Davis Stakes scenarios where the favorites fail. His early speed is his greatest weapon, and at 5/1, he offers the best "value-to-risk" ratio in the entire field. Saffie Joseph is excellent at preparing horses for these specific 1 1/16-mile trips, making Dr. Kapur a major threat to pull off the minor upset.
In the 2026 Sam F. Davis Stakes, the battle at the top of the market between Confessional (2/1) and Renegade (8/5) will dictate the betting dynamics. To find real profit, an "Exacta" or "Trifecta" strategy is recommended over a simple "Win" bet. I suggest keying Renegade in the top spot, as the Irad Ortiz, Jr. factor at Tampa is too significant to ignore. Combine him with Confessional and Dr. Kapur in the second slot, and spread with The Puma and Ocelli in the third slot to catch a potential price.
For those looking for a "long-shot" play, Ocelli at 12/1 offers the best chance of crashing the party. The Sam F. Davis Stakes odds on Ocelli are generous enough to warrant a "Place/Show" bet as insurance. Ultimately, this race appears to be a two-horse war on paper, but the sandy surface of Tampa Bay Downs has a way of leveling the playing field. Stay disciplined with your bankroll and look for the overlays as the Sam F. Davis Stakes betting pools mature throughout the afternoon.
The 2026 Sam F. Davis Stakes is more than just a race; it's the official start of spring fever for horse racing fans around the globe. With a field featuring future superstars and Hall of Fame trainers, the drama at Tampa Bay Downs is guaranteed to be high-octane. Whether you’re backing the favorites or hunting for a 30/1 miracle, there’s no better time to dive into the action; place your bets, watch the gates fly open, and witness the next champion emerge from the Florida dust.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
