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Morning Line Odds for the Derby

By US Racing Team

Mike Battaglia has been Churchill Downs’ morning line odds maker for 48 years since 1974 and the 2023 Kentucky Derby will mark his 50th year assigning morning line odds to the Kentucky Derby field. Morning line odds, which are odds given to horses in a race prior to the start of betting as a prediction how the linemaker thinks the public will bet and are assigned at the post position draw.

Battaglia has correctly predicted the Derby favorite at a better than 77 percent clip and is 38-for-49. This year, champion Forte is the 3-1 morning line favorite. Several rivals are listed at 50-1.

Morning line odds were first published in the official Kentucky Derby Day program in 1949, though records prior to 1949 are incomplete.

Battaglia’s winning morning line favorites, since his first year in 1974:

Tiz The Law                                         3-5       .70-1
Justify, 2018:                                       3-1       2.90-1
Nyquist, 2016                                      3-1       2.30-1
American Pharoah, 2015                  5-2       2.90-1
California Chrome, 2014                   5-2       2.50-1
Orb, 2013                                              7-2       5.40-1
Big Brown, 2008                                  3-1       2.40-1
Fusaichi Pegasus, 2000                      9-5       2.30-1
Spectacular Bid, 1979                         3-5       0.60-1
Seattle Slew, 1977                                1-2       0.50-1
Foolish Pleasure, 1975                        9-5       1.90-1
Cannonade/Judger,1974                    8-5       1.50-1

Pre-Battaglia morning line favorites to have won, 1949-1973

Secretariat/Angle Light, 1973             1-1       1.50-1
Riva Ridge, 1972                                    9-5       1.50-1
Majestic Prince, 1969                           7-5       1.40-1
Carry Back, 1961                                   5-2       2.50-1
Tim Tam, 1958                                      8-5       2.10-1
Needles, 1956                                        2-1       1.60-1
Hill Gail/Top Blend, 1952                   6-5       1.10-1

 

Kentucky Derby 2023 Odds

PP Horse Jockey Trainer Owner Odds
1 Hit Show Franco Brad H. Cox West, Gary and Mary 30-1
2 Verifying Gaffalione Brad H. Cox Poulin, Jonathan, Westerberg, Magnier, Mrs. John, Smith, Derrick and Tabor, Michael B. 15-1
3 Two Phil’s Loveberry Larry Rivelli Patricia’s Hope LLC and Sagan, Phillip 12-1
4 Conficence Game Graham J. Keith Desormeaux Don’t Tell My Wife Stables 20-1
5 Tapit Trice Saez Todd A. Pletcher Whisper Hill Farm, LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck) 5-1
6 Kingbarns J. Ortiz Todd A. Pletcher Spendthrift Farm LLC 12-1
7 Reincarnate Velazquez Tim Yakteen SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Masterson, Robert E., Stonestreet Stables LLC, Schoenfarber, Jay A., Waves Edge Capital LLC and Donovan, Catherine 50-1
8 Mage Castellano Gustavo Delgado OGMA Investments, LLC, Restrepo, Ramiro, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH 15-1
SCR Skinner Hernandez John A. Shirreffs C R K Stable 20-1
SCR Practical Move Vazquez Tim Yakteen Amestoy, Jr., Pierre Jean, Amestoy, Leslie A. and Beasley, Roger K. SCR
9 Disarm Rosario Steven M. Asmussen Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC 30/1
10 Jace’s Road Geroux Brad H. Cox West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables LLC 15-1
11 Sun Thunder Hernandez Jr Kenneth G. McPeek R.T Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine 30-1
12 Angel Of Empire Prat Brad H. Cox Albaugh Family Stables LLC 8-1
SCR Forte I. Ortiz JR. Todd A. Pletcher Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable 3-1
13 Raise Can Corrales Ben Colebrook Warren, Andrew and Warren, Rania 15-1
14 Derma Sotogake Lemaire Hidetaka Otonashi Hiroyuki Asanuma 10-1
15 Rocket Can Alvarado William I. Mott Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, Inc. 15-1
SCR Lord Miles Lopez Todd A. Pletcher Vegso Racing Stable 30-1
SCR Continuar Sakai Yoshito Yahagi Lion Race Horse Co. Ltd. 50-1
16 Cyclone Mischief J. Rosario D. Romans Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Castleton Lyons. 30-1
17 Mandarin Hero Kazushi Kimura Terunobu Fujita Hiroaki Arai. 20-1
18 King Russell Rafael Bejarano Ron Moquett Jones, Brereton C. and Naber Racing, LLC 50-1
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