Race Profile: Breeders’ Cup Distaff

DISTAFF
Friday, Nov. 4, 2016 (3:50 PM PDT)

Purse: $2,000,000
Distance (surface): 1-1/8 miles (dirt)
*Race ESR: -7 (moderate/brisk)
*Race LSR: -7 (fair/good)

Winner’s Profile

Days Since Last Race: 27.0
Last-Race Odds: 8-5
Median BSF: 98.5
Median ESR: -4 (moderate/soft)
Median LSR: -8 (fair/good)
Running Style: F

  • Fillies and mares that last competed for a purse of $400,000 or greater are 11-for-103 in the Distaff/Ladies Classic since 1997 — good for an ROI of 45.19 percent.Qualifiers (as of Oct. 26): CURALINA, FOREVER UNBRIDLED, I’M A CHATTERBOX, LAND OVER SEA, PAID UP SUBSCRIBER and SONGBIRD.
  • Although last-race winners have won seven of the past 19 editions of the Distaff/Ladies Classic, they have produced a loss of 70 cents for every dollar wagered (0.54 OBIV).Qualifiers (as of Oct. 26): CORONA DEL INCA, FOREVER UNBRIDLED, I’M A CHATTERBOX, SONGBIRD and STELLAR WIND.
  • Over the past 19 years, fillies and mares with a Pace Profile Report style designation of “M/R,” “R” or “UK” are 2-of-74 (-53.58 percent ROI) in the Distaff/Ladies Classic when it’s been run on dirt.Qualifiers (as of Oct. 26): CORONA DEL INCA, FOREVER UNBRIDLED and LAND OVER SEA.
  • Since 1997, horses with a median ESR ranked among the top three in the field have won eight times in 50 attempts and produced a $2 net return of $4.98 (148.80 percent ROI).Qualifiers (as of Oct. 26): BEHOLDER, PAID UP SUBSCRIBER and SONGBIRD.
  • Eight of 39 horses with a Pace Profile Report median speed figure of 100 or greater have won the Distaff/Ladies Classic since 1997, offering healthy profits across the board.Qualifiers (as of Oct. 26): BEHOLDER, CURALINA, SONGBIRD and STELLAR WIND.

STARTLING STAT: Over the past 19 years, 13 horses with an “F” (frontrunning) Pace Profile Report style designation have won the Distaff, returning $3.41 for every $2 bet to win. 

Qualifiers (as of Oct. 26): BEHOLDER, CURALINA, I’M A CHATTERBOX, SONGBIRD and STELLAR WIND.

*Statistics on a dirt surface.

Derek Simon
Derek Simon is the Senior Editor and Handicapper at US Racing.
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