Time-Adjusted Speed Rating Plays for Saturday

About a year ago, I began experimenting with the concept of time decay as it relates to athletic performance. In fact, I wrote about my findings in an article entitled “A Speed Handicapping Method That Actually Works!

In that article, I noted that speed figures — doesn’t matter the type (the old Daily Racing Form ratings, Beyer numbers, the “Figs”, etc.) — all suffer from the fact that they are merely a snapshot in time and, as such, may not be relevant today.

“What was true a month ago, may not be true today and what is true today may not be true a month from now,” I wrote.

Hence, I came up with what I called a time-adjusted speed rating (or TASR for short). As I demonstrated in the article, at a certain threshold, these ratings produced much better results than other speed figures I’ve tested over the years.


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So, today, I wanted to highlight some horses with superior TASRs running on Saturday. Of course, the risk of doing this is that the highlighted horses will perform abysmally and statistically-challenged handicappers will assume the whole concept of time-adjusted numbers is a waste of, well, time.

Even worse, the listed horses might perform ridiculously well and statistically-challenged handicappers will thus assume that the concept of time-adjusted numbers is the key to the mint.

It is neither. And I urge players to use their own judgement before betting on the following speed steeds:

12CBY091518 7CTD091518 3IND091518 5LBG091518 4RP091518 8SUF091518 7TDN091518

Originally posted on August 25, 2018

2nd Alburquerque
6 furlongs (dirt)

2ALB082518

Comments: Both MR JANIMAL and BLAZE’N PROSPECTOR look good in this sport and I would use them as keys in all your exotic wagers.

4th Assiniboia Downs
6 furlongs (dirt)

4ASD082518

Comments: Not only does COOL BREWSKI have a recent speed edge, he looks to have a pace edge as well. I’d use him on top of exactas — or “exactors” for my Canadian friends — with ROYAL NICK, D’ POP and TOBILLS.

4th Belterra Park
5 furlongs (turf)

4BTP082518

Comments: DAVE’S TEXAS LADY is 3-of-7 lifetime on the grass and comes off an impressive win against lesser at Mountaineer Park.

6th Belterra Park
6 ½ furlongs (dirt)

6BTP082518

Comments: PUT A HEX ON MY EX looks like a solid key on top and bottom of exactas with the 1/1A entry, along with RED SLIPPERS and CLASSICAL MUSIC.

8th Ferndale
5 ½ furlongs (dirt)

8FER082518

Comments: In a race with a lot of hard-hitting campaigners, SASSY ROSE looks like the hardest hitting of them all — but make sure you get a decent price.

7th Finger Lakes
6 furlongs (dirt)

7FL082518

Comments: In a race without a lot of early zip, SO NOTED will need to work out a good trip, but the gelding came out running in his 6-year-old debut, which represented only the 15th start of his career.

6th Timonium
6 ½ furlongs (dirt)

6TIM082518

Comments: OUR GABRIELLE heads a strong entry. With a vulnerable favorite in the next race, I’d key the daughter of Philanthropist in the double, among other wagers.

Derek Simon
Derek Simon is the Senior Editor and Handicapper at US Racing.
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