Exactly How Good is Tepin?

Tepin will make her long-awaited return to the track today in the Grade I Woodbine Mile.  Often referred to as one of the top races in Canada, the Woodbine Mile is an important stepping stone race towards the Breeders’ Cup Mile.  In fact, nine winners of the Woodbine Mile have come back and finished either first, second, or third in the Breeder’s Cup Mile.

Tepin is considered by many as the top Turf Miler in the world and for good reason, as she is coming off an impressive victory at Royal Ascot in the Group I Queen Anne Stakes three months ago. Along with that impressive score, she has rattled off seven victories in a row, including last fall in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Mile.

The Mark Casse trainee is proving that she is like a fine wine and just keeps getting better with age.  Listed below is a summary of Tepin’s 2015 season, along with her Timeform numbers:

tepin2015season

What can we gleam from these numbers?

  • Finished with a median Timeform rating of 123 for the entire year
  • Finished with a median Timeform rating of 134 in her final three starts of the year
  • Won 71% of her starts in 2015

It is evident that the daughter of Bernstein hit her best stride late in her 4-year-old season. In the graph below, you will see how her numbers increased as the year progressed and her trend line was soaring sky high heading into her 5-year-old campaign:

tepin2015seasongraph

How would that momentum carry over to the 2016 season? Listed below is Tepin’s 2016 season along with her Timeform numbers:

tepin2016season

What can we gleam from these numbers?

  • Has a median Timeform rating of 128 so far this season
  • Has a median Timeform rating of 128 in her last three starts this season
  • Is undefeated in five starts this year

The numbers for Tepin look quite solid in 2016 and her median Timeform rating of 128 for the 2016 season is a nice improvement over what she scored for the 2015 season.

What is peculiar about the ratings is that perhaps the biggest win of her career (The Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot) was her worst Timeform rating of the season (124). Time will tell if this is a sign of things to come or an anomaly.

Her chart seems to suggest that the 124 Timeform rating was an anomaly and she should continue to race around or above her median figure of 128 going forward, which is good news for her chances today:

tepin2016seasongraph

Tepin looks like a rock-solid favorite for her return to the races today. She will be looking to add the Woodbine Mile to an already impressive portfolio of victories and will only enhance her claim as he best American filly or mare in training with a victory… but that is an argument for another day.

Andrew Morisch
Drew Morisch, aka “Drew Mo” or the “Bloghorse,” has been an avid sports fan since he was born. Growing up in Nebraska, it was easy for him to fall in love with football and horse racing. He became a huge horse racing fan by attending Ak-Sar-Ben race track before its gates closed (sadly) for the last time in 1995.

Horses such as Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Black Tie Affair, Preakness winner Gate Dancer and local favorite Who Doctor Who all graced the dirt at Ak-Sar-Ben and helped power Drew’s passion for the Sport of Kings.

Drew has other passions to go along with horse racing. He is a big Nebraska Cornhuskers fan. You will usually find him tailgating at some undisclosed location on game days. Drew loves crunching numbers and analyzing data. Whether it’s PE ratios on stocks, speed figures in horse racing, or assist-to-turnover ratios in basketball, there is no such thing as too much information in his book. Drew also plays fantasy sports.

You interact with Drew on Facebook at www.facebook.com/DrewMorisch or follow him on Twitter @thebloghorse.

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