A Unique Way to Bet the San Carlos Stakes at Santa Anita

Santa Anita Park’s feature race on Saturday is the San Carlos Stakes (G2), a seven-furlong affair for 3-year-olds and upward that lured American Anthem. The Bob Baffert trainee, who was once among the favorites for the 2017 Kentucky Derby before back-to-back dismal performances in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), seems to have found his niche as a longer-distance sprinter, notching wins in the Laz Barrera Stakes (G3) and the Woody Stephens (G2), both at seven panels.

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He’s the 9-5 morning line favorite.

I’m also intrigued by a John Sadler-trained longshot named Horse Greedy (15-1 on the morning line). The son of Horse Greeley was just claimed by Sadler for $40,000 after one of the best performances of his career. True, he’s been blitzed in both of his stakes tries, but they were both in Grade I company.

But the horse I’m most excited about on Saturday’s Santa Anita card runs in the 10th race — right before the San Carlos.

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Although his speed figures are a little light, Premium Forest recorded an outstanding +1 late speed ration (LSR) in his last race on the grass and previously earned a 0 LSR in a main-track affair at Golden Gate Fields (which has a synthetic surface).

The projected early speed ration (ESR) in the 10th race — a one-mile, $16,000 optional claiming affair on the turf — is a -6, just a tick slower (relatively speaking) than the projected ESR in the San Carlos.


Click HERE to get all the latest odds at Santa Anita Park


I’d play the 10th and 11th races as follows:

  • Place on 2-Premium Forest.
  • Daily Double 2 with 4,5,6,8.
  • Daily Double 2,5,8 with 4,5.

ppr

Derek Simon
Derek Simon is the Senior Editor and Handicapper at US Racing.
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