In gambling it is generally wise to yin when others yang and yang when others yin. In other words, be a contrarian.
Well, if there is one thing that most football bettors are in agreement on, it is that Super Bowl LI will be a high scoring affair.
At Covers.com, site visitors betting the “over” outnumber those betting the “under” by nearly a 3-1 margin. It’s a little more balanced at VegasInsider.com, but the majority of players (57 percent) still believe that the two teams will score more than 59 combined points.
But there are some solid reasons to believe — and, more importantly, bet — the opposite:
1) In 13 previous meetings, these two teams have never scored more than 59 combined points. Now, granted, such historical team match-ups aren’t particularly meaningful — after all, the first meeting took place in 1972 (five years before Tom Brady was born) — but it is something to ponder.
2) In Super Bowl games with an over/under mark of 50 points or greater, the “under” is 6-3.
3) This is more subjective, but both Atlanta and New England have great ball-control offenses, especially the former. Against Green Bay in the NFC Championship, Atlanta had scoring drives of 6:30 (touchdown), 5:22 (field goal), 7:32 (touchdown) and 5:04 (touchdown). That’s 24 points in nearly a half against a defense considerably inferior to the one the Falcons will face in Houston.