Longest Shot on the Board Looks Like Great Bet

Golden Gate Fields Race 4 

Although the Race Rating is only 36 percent—below the 50 percent minimum that I like to see — this race is interesting to me due to three horses: 1-Fabriana, 2-Queenoftheroad and 6-Lady Beware.


Let’s start with the latter.

Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by William Antongeorgi, Lady Beware is dropping to the lowest class level of her career. After competing for a $20,000 tag last time, she’s eligible to be claimed for just $8,000 today. Now, in many cases, such a drastic move would be a huge positive, but I don’t think that’s the case here. Yes, Hollendorfer has a 26 percent success rate with horses dropping 2+ class levels over the past year, but his ROI in such instances is -29 percent — considerably worse than his overall -22 percent ROI in 2018-19, despite the above-average win rate.

Then there’s the horse itself. The Irish daughter of Dragon Pulse has never won on the main track and, in fact, was beaten by a combined 33 ¾ lengths in her two off-the-turf tries — on today’s Tapeta surface in her last start and on the dirt at Churchill Downs on Nov. 18.

At 2-1 on the morning line, I think Lady Beware is very vulnerable.

The horse with the best chance to beat the morning line choice is…

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