Week 4 NFL Odds and Picks: Looking for Brady’s Bucs Over Belichick’s Pats
Huge! Our NFL guru Ira Kaufman had a brilliant Week 3 with a gaudy 11-5 record against the spread (ATS). In a week that featured so many close calls, including an NFL-record, game-winning field goal by the Ravens, Irascible Ira still gave usracing.com bettors the Bengals covering against the Steelers, the Lions covering against the Ravens, and a second straight UPSET SPECIAL: Vikings (plus 1 ½) beating the Seahawks outright 30-17. Let’s see what he’s got going for this weekend. And pay attention to the UPSET SPECIAL.
BY IRA KAUFMAN
Whoever said you can’t go home again never met Bill Belichick.
Tom Brady’s return to Foxborough has dominated the NFL headlines this week, with the Bucs and Patriots both coming off losses. New England fans are expected to show Brady and Rob Gronkowski lots of pre-game love before turning their attention to struggling rookie quarterback Mac Jones.
The Bucs are solid favorites to drop the offensively challenged Pats to 1-3. Belichick and Brady know each other so well, it will be interesting to see which of these historic football minds can outthink the other.
The Bucs haven’t played a complete game, but the defending champs are 2-1. That’s more than can be said for the team Tampa Bay routed in the Super Bowl as the defenseless and self-destructing Chiefs head to Philly in desperate need of a few takeaways.
Despite catching Dallas on a short week, the unbeaten Panthers are underdogs to the surging Cowboys while a pair of 3-0 clubs meet in Arizona for NFC West bragging rights. With Josh Allen heating up, the Bills are massive favorites vs. Houston. A tight game is expected in Denver, where Justin Tucker might be called upon to kick a game-winning 70-yard FG on the final snap in Colorado’s thin air.
And away we go with Week 4 Odds and Picks
Bengals (minus 7 ½) vs. Jaguars (Thursday night)
Urban Meyer isn’t finding any cupcakes on Jacksonville’s schedule and Joe Burrow is serving notice Cincinnati has a legit deep passing game. Bengals, 38-20.
Washington (minus 1 ½) at Falcons
Washington’s touted defense hasn’t shown up, but here’s a chance for Chase Young to silence the skeptics against an immobile Matt Ryan. Washington, 24-21.
Bears (minus 3) vs. Lions
Chicago coach Matt Nagy is on thin ice off Lake Michigan. Look for a big running day for David Montgomery against the winless Lions. Bears, 27-16.
Titans (minus 7 ½) at Jets
Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson is losing confidence rapidly for a hapless organization while Tennessee has rebounded nicely from that Week 1 debacle against Arizona. Titans, 30-14.
Vikings (plus 2) vs. Browns
If Dalvin Cook’s sore ankle is healed, Minnesota will have the weapons to challenge Myles Garrett and that nasty Cleveland defense. Vikings, 31-27.
Colts (plus 1 ½) vs. Dolphins
Indy must avoid an 0-4 start to have any chance for a postseason berth, so desperation carries the day. Colts, 23-16.
Panthers (plus 5) vs. Cowboys
Carolina’s smothering defense gets a real test against Dak Prescott and a stout ground game. Sam Darnold will do just enough to keep the Panthers close. Cowboys, 24-20.
Giants (plus 7 ½) vs. Saints
Saquon Barkley needs a breakout game to remind Giant fans what they once had. New Orleans has been up and down, so this spread looks too extravagant. Saints, 27-23.
Chiefs (minus 7 ½) at Eagles
KC is in an ornery mood after narrow, back-to-back setbacks and Patrick Mahomes intends to make the sloppy Eagles pay. Chiefs, 38-20.
Bills (minus 16 ½) vs. Texans
Josh Allen has been prolific since that Week 1 snoozer and Sean McDermott doesn’t mind running up the score. Bills, 34-13.
Cardinals (plus 4 ½) vs. Rams
L.A. could have a bit of a letdown after Sunday’s big showdown against Tom Brady and the Bucs. Unlike Brady, Kyler Murray will hurt the Rams with those swift young legs. UPSET SPECIAL: Cardinals, 24-21.
49ers (minus 2 ½) vs. Seahawks
Russell Wilson is doing his job, but Seattle can’t make key stops and George Kittle will find the holes downfield. 49ers, 34-24.
Broncos (minus 1) vs. Ravens
Baltimore pulled out a miracle finish and Lamar Jackson can wreck any defense, but Teddy Bridgewater is getting the job done for the unbeaten Broncos. Broncos, 31-27.
Packers (minus 6 ½) vs. Steelers
Although Mike Tomlin swears it’s not time to panic, Ben Roethlisberger is looking his age and Aaron Rodgers is no tonic for what ails you. Packers, 28-14.
Buccaneers (minus 6 ½) at Patriots (Sunday night)
The Bucs are hoping to get Antonio Brown back, adding another weapon as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick renew acquaintances. Bucs, 24-17.
Raiders (plus 3 ½) at Chargers (Monday night)
This has the makings of a shootout between Derek Carr and Justin Herbert. The Chargers must find a way to cover prolific TE Darren Waller. Raiders, 24-21.
Last week: 12-4 straight up, 11-5 ATS
Season: 22-10 straight up, 20-12 ATS
Upset special: 2-0.