Kentucky Derby Odds, Best Pick, Past Performances, Expert Handicapping

Kentucky Derby Odds, Best Pick, Past Performances, Expert Handicapping

The excitement of the Kentucky Derby is never restricted to just the two minutes or so in which the race has run. In the weeks leading up to the annual event, contenders jump onto and off the probables lists daily and the hype builds steadily up until and through the time the gates swing open. But nothing is as exciting, likely, than the last few seconds of the race as the winner cruises down the lane to the win by daylight, or especially when he (or she) just gets up in time. The Derby outcome has been decided by less than a length on 42 occasions, but has been won by four lengths or more 23 times.

Kentucky Derby  Past Performances, Expert Picks

Largest Winning Margins:

Old Rosebud: 1914, 8 lengths

Johnstown: 1939, 8 lengths

Whirlaway: 1941, 8 lengths

Assault: 1946, 8 lengths

Mine That Bird: 2009, 6 ¾ lengths

Barbaro: 2006, 6 ½ lengths

Chant: 1894, 6 lengths

Hoop Jr.: 1945, 6 lengths

Spend a Buck: 1985, 5 ¼ lengths

Halma: 1895, 5 lengths

Sir Barton: 191,9 5 lengths

Bubbling Over: 1926, 5 lengths

Burgoo King: 1932, 5 lengths

Dust Commander: 1970, 5 lengths

Monarchos: 2001, 4 ¾ lengths

Big Brown: 2008, 4 ¾ lengths

Pensive: 1944, 4 ½ lengths

Hindoo: 1881, 4 lengths

Lookout: 1893, 4 lengths

Wintergreen: 1909, 4 lengths

Twenty Grand: 1931, 4 lengths

Count Turf: 1951, 4 lengths

War Emblem: 2002, 4 lengths

Smallest Winning Margin

Spokane: 1889, nose

Azra: 1892, nose

Ben Brush: 1896, nose

Plaudit: 1898, nose

Alan-a-Dale: 1902, nose

Brokers Tip: 1933, nose

Iron Liege: 1957 nose

Tomy Lee: 1959, nose

Grindstone: 1996, nose

Paul Jones: 1920, head

Behave Yourself: 1921, head

Whiskery: 1927, head

Bold Venture: 1936, head

Jet Pilot: 1947, head

Dark Star: 1953, head

Silver Charm: 1997, head

Joe Cotton: 1885, neck

Typhoon II: 1897, neck

Worth: 1912, neck

George Smith: 1916, neck

Northern Dancer: 1964, neck

Lucky Debonair: 1965, neck

Majestic Prince: 1969, neck

Winning Colors: 1988, neck

Charismatic: 1999, neck

Apollo: 1882, ½ length

Ben Ali: 1886, ½ length

Kingman: 1891, ½ length

Elwood: 1904, ½ length

Donau: 1910, ½ length

Donerail: 1913, ½ length

Black Gold: 1924, ½ length

Tim Tam: 1958, ½ length

Kauai King: 1966, ½ length

Real Quiet: 1998, ½ length

Giacomo: 2005, ½ length

Judge Himes: 1903, ¾ length

Meridian: 1911, ¾ length

Needles: 1956 ¾ length

Carry Back: 1961, ¾ length

Pleasant Colony: 1981, ¾ length

Alysheba: 1987, ¾ length

Kentucky Derby Expert Handicapping, Best Picks

Only one Derby winner since 1908 broke his maiden in the Derby meaning that the majority of all Derby runners have at least graduated to the winners’ class and made it to stakes company. Last year Authentic became the fourth Derby winner to have broken his maiden at Del Mar. Belmont leads all tracks with 16.

That said, some tracks still send out more Derby winners than others, so following is a list of track success where Derby winners broke their maidens, in alphabetical order.

Aqueduct: 9

Arlington Park: 5

Belmont Park: 16

Calder: 2

Churchill Downs: 4

Del Mar: 4

Delaware Park: 3

Fort Erie: 1

Gulfstream Park: 3

Hialeah: 7

Hollywood Park: 5

Keeneland: 2

Pimlico: 1

Santa Anita: 9

Saratoga: 10

Tampa Bay Downs 1

Turfway Park: 2

Woodbine: 3

Last winner to have broken their maiden at each track:

Aqueduct: 2013 winner Orb

Arlington Park: 2007 winner Street Sense

Belmont Park: 2010 winner Super Saver

Calder: 1992 winner Lil E. Tee

Churchill Downs: 1933 winner Brokers Tip (also broke maiden in the Derby)

Del Mar: 2020 winner Authentic

Delaware Park: 2006 winner Barbaro

Fort Erie: 1964 winner Northern Dancer

Gulfstream Park: 2019 winner Country House

Hialeah: 1975 winner Foolish Pleasure

Hollywood Park: 2014 winner California Chrome

Keeneland: 2011 winner Animal Kingdom

Meadowlands: 1981 winner Pleasant Colony

Parx Racing: 2004 winner Smarty Jones

Pimlico: 1979 winner Spectacular Bid

Santa Anita: 2018 winner Justify

Saratoga: 2008 winner Big Brown

Saratoga (dirt): 1988 winner Winning Colors

Saratoga (male on dirt): 1962 winner Decidedly

Tampa Bay Downs” 2017 winner Always Dreaming

Turfway Park: 1987 winner Alysheba

Woodbine: 2009 winner Mine That Bird

On Synthetic: 2011 winner Animal Kingdom

On Turf: 2008 winner Big Brown

Foreign: 1976 winner Bold Forbes (El Commandante, Puerto Rico)

How many starts did it take for Derby winners to break their maiden?

Derby winners who broke maiden in first start: 45

Derby winners who broke maiden in second start: 26

Derby winners who broke maiden in first or second start: 69

Derby winners who broke maiden in third start: 16

Derby winners who broke maiden in 4+ starts: 17

Derby winners who broke maiden on turf: 3

Derby winners who broke maiden on synthetic: 4

Derby winners who broke maiden on turf (since 1914): Sea Hero (1993), Barbaro (2006) & Big Brown (2008)

Derby winners who broke maiden on a synthetic surface (since 1914): Mine That Bird (2009), Animal Kingdom (2011), I’ll Have Another (2012), California Chrome (2014) & American Pharoah (2015)

Derby winners who broke maiden in a maiden claiming race (since 1914): Charistmatic (1999) & Mine That Bird (2009)

Maiden Winners (since 1929 or last 90)

Derby winners who broke maiden in April: 8

Derby winners who broke maiden in May: 6

Derby winners who broke maiden in June: 11

Derby winners who broke maiden in July: 10

Derby winners who broke maiden in August: 11

Derby winners who broke maiden in September: 11

Derby winners who broke maiden in October: 9 (including 8 of last 24)

Derby winners who broke maiden in November: 8

Derby winners who broke maiden in December: 0

Derby winners who broke maiden in January.: 8

Derby winners who broke maiden in February: 1 (latest February 18, except 1933)

Derby winners who broke maiden in March: 0

Derby winners who broke maiden in April: 0

Derby winners who broke maiden prior to December: 75 (82.4%)

About two-thirds of the Derby winners broke their maiden in their first or second start, including 17 of the last 21 years.

Twelve maidens have run in the Kentucky Derby since 1937 – Bodexpress, 2019, 13th; Sonneteer, 2017, 16th; Trojan Nation, 2016, 16th; Nationalore, 1998, 9th; Pendleton Ridge, 1990, 13th; Great Redeemer, 1979, 10th; Fourulla, 1971, 19th; The Chosen One ,1959, 14th; Flamingo, 1958; 13th; On The Mark, 1950, 8th; Senecas Coin, 1949, 14th; and Bert G., 1945, 14th

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