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Wanna Bet? A Peek at the Current 2021 Kentucky Derby Contenders

By Richard Rosenblatt

Horse Racing – USR Photo

With the holiday season fast approaching – along with the end of 2020 — it seems like an appropriate time to sit back, take a deep breath, and think about … the Kentucky Derby (G1)!

And why not?

After all, the Run for the Roses is just over five months away – for now scheduled on its traditional date, the first Saturday in May — and back as the first leg of the Triple Crown.

Churchill Downs on Monday (Nov. 23) announced that its first Derby Future Wager opens Thursday (Nov. 26), with Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Essential Quality the 10-1 individual favorite among 24 betting interests. For the 23rd consecutive year, “all others” is expected to be the overall first-pool favorite, with oddsmaker Mike Battaglia installing it as the 6-5 favorite.

The 2020 racing schedule, as we are well aware, was reshuffled due to COVID-19 with the Triple Crown races run in a different order than usual – the Belmont Stakes (G1) was first, followed by the Derby and the Preakness (G1). Instead of a five-week run of the Derby-Preakness-Belmont, it was a 15-week haul with the Belmont-Derby-Preakness.

And so we move on, and hopefully a COVID-19 vaccine will be in place, fans can return to racetracks, and the racing schedule will return to some semblance of normalcy.

The 2020 Triple Crown saw three different winners – Tiz the Law took the Belmont on June 20, Authentic won the Derby on Sept. 3 (Tiz the Law was second, and filly Swiss Skydiver captured the Preakness on Oct. 5 (Authentic was second).

In 2021, the dates are May 1 for the Derby, May 15 for the Preakness and June 5 for the Belmont.

Essential Quality, at the moment, seems to be the top Derby prospect. The undefeated son of Tapit, owned by Godolphin LLC, has won all three of his starts by a total of nine lengths. Trained by Brad Cox, Essential Quality took the Juvenile by 1 3 /4 lengths.

“He’s a nice, sound colt,” Cox said after the Juvenile on Nov. 6. “We’ll keep our fingers crossed that he stays that way. We’ll work our way back to the first Saturday in May somehow and some way.”

Life is Good, Highly Motivated, both 15-1

Next in the Future Wager lineup at 15-1 are Life Is Good, a 9 1/2-length maiden winner in his recent debut for six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert, and Highly Motivated, winner of the Nyquist Stakes on Nov. 6 for trainer Chad Brown.

Listed at 20-1 are Get Her Number (American Pharoah Stakes winner), Hot Rod Charlie (second in the BC Juvenile), Jackie’s Warrior (fourth in the BC Juvenile as the 9-10 favorite), Keepmeinmind (third in the BC Juvenile, and 0-for-3 overall), Pickin’ Time (Nashua Stakes winner), and Savile Row (maiden winner in debut for Baffert).

Opening at 30-1 are Caddo River, Dr. Schivel, Fire At Will, Midnight Bourbon, Red Flag, Reinvestment Risk, Rombauer, Scarred, Sittin On Go, and Super Stock.

At 50-1 are King Fury, Speaker’s Corner, and Ten for Ten.

The pool opens Thursday at noon ET and closes Sunday at 6 p.m.

Derby qualifying points leaders

And if you’re keeping score on the road the Derby, here’s the latest on qualifying points as these horses go from 2-year-olds to 3-year-olds on Jan. 1: Essential Quality is on top with 30 points, followed by Jackie’s Warrior (12), Get Her Number (10), Sittin on Go (10), and Hot Rod Charlie (eight).

Nine Derby qualifying races have been contested in 2020, including international events, with three coming up in the next few weeks — the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs and the Cattleya at Tokyo Racecourse, both on Saturday (Nov. 28) and the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct on Dec. 5. Three more Derby-point qualifiers finish out 2020, with the Jerome at the Big A kicking off the 2021 Derby qualifiers on Jan. 1.

Upcoming Derby-points qualifiers

Race
Track
Date
Points for 1-2-3-4 finishers
Kentucky Jockey Club
Churchill Downs
Nov. 28
10-4-2-1
Cattleya
Racecourse
Nov. 28
10-4-2-1
Remsen
Aqueduct
Dec 5
10-4-2-1
Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun
Kawasaki
Dec. 16
20-8-4-2
Los Alamitos Futurity
Los Alamitos
Dec. 19
10-4-2-1
Springboard Mile
Remington Park
Dec. 20
10-4-2-1

2021

Race
Track
Date
Points for 1-2-3-4 finishers
Jerome
Aqueduct
Jan. 1
10-4-2-1
Sham
Santa Anita
Jan. 2
10-4-2-1
Lecomte
Fair Grounds
Jan. 16
10-4-2-1
Smarty Jones
Oaklawn Par
Jan. 22
10-4-2-1
Holy Bull
Gulfstream Park
Jan. 30
10-4-2-1
Hyacinth
Tokyo Racecourse
TBA
30-12-6-3
Robert B. Lewis
Santa Anita
Feb. 6
10-4-2-1
Withers
Aqueduct
Feb. 6
10-4-2-1
Sam F. Davis
Tampa Bay Downs
Feb. 6
10-4-2-1
John Battaglia Memorial
Turfway Park
Feb. 6
10-4-2-1
El Camino Real Derby
Golden Gate Fields
Feb. 13
10-4-2-1
Risen Star
Fair Grounds
Feb. 13
50-20-10-5
Southwest
Oaklawn Park
Feb. 15
10-4-2-1
Fountain of Youth
Gulfstream Park
Feb. 27
50-20-10-5
Patton Stakes
Dundalk
March 1
20-8-4-2
Road to Derby Condition Stakes
Kempton
March 4
20-8-4-2
Gotham
Aqueduct
March 6
50-20-10-5
Tampa Bay Derby
Tampa Bay Downs
March 6
50-20-10-5
San Felipe
Santa Anita
March 6
50-20-10-5
Rebel
Oaklawn Park
March 13
50-20-10-5
Jeff Ruby Steaks
Turfway Park
March 20
20-8-4-2
Louisiana Derby
Fair Grounds
March 20
100-40-20-10
Florida Derby
Gulfstream Park
March 27
100-40-20-10
UAE Derby
Meydan Racecourse
March 27
100-40-20-10
Fukuryu
Nakayama
TBA
40-16-8-4
Sunland Derby
Sunland Park
March 30
50-20-10-5
Blue Grass
Keeneland
April 1
100-40-20-10
Santa Anita Derby
Santa Anita
April 1
100-40-20-10
Cardinal Condition Stakes
Chelmsford City
April 1
30-12-6-3
Wood Memorial
Aqueduct
April 3
100-40-20-10
Arkansas Derby
Oaklawn Park
April 10
100-40-20-10
Lexington
Keeneland
April 10
20-8-4-2

Note: Scheduled dates subject to change

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